Research Takeaway
Gold since our last report has been moving downwards. Today’s focus is on the Fed’s interest rate decision which is set to occur during the American trading session. Moreover, emphasis on the BoE’s interest rate decision tomorrow and the BOJ’s monetary policy decision on Friday who are expected to hike rates. Overall, a higher rate environment could weigh on gold’s price.
Research Desk View: BEARISH
Gold in One Minute
| Metric | View |
| Bias | Bearish |
| Primary Driver | Fed rate hike expectations |
| Main Risk | Fed decision today |
| Key Level | Hold below $4350 to preserve the thesis |
| Next Catalyst | FED decision · 16/09/2026 / 21:00 GMT+2 |
The Gold Thesis
Gold’s near-term path is shaped by the Fed’s interest rate decision which is set to take place later on today. The majority of market participants are currently anticipating the bank to hike rates by 25 basis points with FFF currently implying a 91% probability for such a scenario to materialize. Therefore, our attention and the markets may turn towards Fed Chair Warsh’s press conference and the banks accompanying statement, where traders may be looking for a confirmation or clues that the Fed may continue on their restrictive monetary policy stance in the future in an attempt to curb inflation.
In turn this may be seen as hawkish and aid the dollar whilst weighing on gold’s price given their assumed inverse relationship. In our view, we are more concerned with the inflation narrative stemming from the continued high energy prices as a result of the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Hence our focus will be on any references to the possible long term implications of high energy prices and how the bank may be addressing them.
Gold Drivers
| Driver | Signal | Rationale |
| Rates | Bearish | US 10YR Yields have risen |
| Risk Demand | Supportive | Elevated geopolitical uncertainty |
| FED | Bearish | Fed expected to hike today |
Key Events
| Event | Date / Time | Prior – Anticipated – Actual | Potential Impact on Gold |
| FED decision | Wednesday / 21:00 GMT+2 | [Prior: 3.5-3.75%] – [Anticipated: 3.75-4%] – [Actual: N/A] | Could weaken gold’s price |
| FOMC Press conference | Wednesday / 21:30 GMT+2 | [Prior: N/A%] – [Anticipated: N/A%] – [Actual: N/A] | Depends on the narrative |
Technical Context
Gold appears to be moving in a downwards fashion. Since our last report we’ve re-adjusted our first resistance level to 4350 (R1) we opt for a bearish outlook for the precious metal’s and for our bearish outlook to be maintained we would require a break below our 4180 (S1) support level with the next possible target for the bears being our 4020 (S2) support line. On the other hand, for a bullish outlook we would require a break above our 4350 (R1) resistance line with the next possible target for the bulls being our 4520 (R2) resistance level. We should note that the RSI indicator below our chart currently registers a figure near 50, implying a neutral market sentiment.
Short-Term Gold Levels
| Level | Price |
| Support (1) | $4180 |
| Support (2) | $4020 |
| Resistance (1) | $4350 |
| Resistance (2) | $4520 |
| Horizon | This week |
What Changes the View
| Signal | Development |
| 🟢 Confirms the Thesis | Hawkish Fed |
| 🟢 Confirms the Thesis | Heightened geopolitical tensions |
| 🔴 Challenges the Thesis | Dovish Fed commentary |
| 🔴 Challenges the Thesis | Calls for interest rate restraints from other central banks |
The Gold Lens
The Fed’s decision is the next main test for gold prices. The question remains as to whether the Fed will adopt a more restrictive monetary policy approach i.e hiking in the future and to what extent, or will the banks press conference and accompanying statement call for restraint. In our view, as banks resume their rate hiking cycle, gold’s price could potentially suffer as a result. Yet a failure to confirm the markets expectations could inadvertently lead to gains for gold and thus may provide support for the precious metal’s price.
Key Variables to Remember
| Indicator | Bullish for Gold | Bearish for Gold |
| Real yields | Falling | Rising |
| US Dollar | Weakening | Strengthening |
| Fed expectations | More easing | More tightening |
| Central-bank demand | Increasing | Weakening |
| ETF flows | Inflows | Outflows |
| Risk environment | Uncertainty | Risk appetite |
Disclaimer:
This information is not considered as investment advice or investment recommendation but instead a marketing communication.
