{"id":9865,"date":"2026-10-21T16:06:32","date_gmt":"2026-10-21T13:06:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/?p=9865"},"modified":"2026-10-21T16:06:34","modified_gmt":"2026-10-21T13:06:34","slug":"gold-traders-prepare-for-fed-decision-next-week","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/ko\/news-analysis\/gold-traders-prepare-for-fed-decision-next-week\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold traders prepare for Fed decision next week"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 id=\"h-research-takeaway\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Research Takeaway<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gold is moving in a predominantly sideways fashion, with the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision set to take place next week. The current expectations are for the bank to remain on hold, with FFF implying an 85.1% probability for such a scenario to materialize. Thus, attention may turn to Fed Chair Warsh\u2019s press conference following the decision and the bank\u2019s accompanying statement, which may provide insight into the bank\u2019s inner deliberations. In our view, we wouldn\u2019t be surprised to see a more hawkish stance from the bank in its communications next week, as inflation still remains high, which in turn could weigh on gold\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Research Desk View:<\/strong> BEARISH<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-gold-in-one-minute\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Gold in One Minute<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Metric<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>View<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Bias<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Neutral<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Primary Driver<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>DXY<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Main Risk<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Fed decision<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Key Level<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Hold below $4200 to preserve the thesis<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Next Catalyst<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>US Inflation data \u00b7 14\/10\/2026 \/ 15:30 GMT+2<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-the-gold-thesis\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Gold Thesis<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The markets may be preparing for the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision next week. As things stand, FFF currently implies&nbsp; an 81% probability for the bank to remain on hold in their next meeting, which in turn could lead to gold remaining in a sideways fashion up until the bank\u2019s decision. However, when looking at the recent inflation metrics from the US, we can see that inflation has accelerated in the most recent inflation print, which could be of concern for the Fed moving forward. In turn, we wouldn\u2019t be surprised to see the bank\u2019s commentary being perceived as hawkish in nature, which could provide support for the greenback whilst weighing on gold\u2019s price given the inverse relationship between the two assets. Yet, we should note that despite the relative low coverage of the Middle East, we would not be surprised to see tensions heating up between the US and Iran, which could provide safe haven inflows into the precious metal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-gold-drivers\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Gold Drivers<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Driver<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Signal<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Rationale<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Rates<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Bearish<\/td><td>US 10YR increasing<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Risk Demand<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Neutral<\/td><td>Muted geopolitical uncertainty<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-key-events\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key Events<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Event<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Date \/ Time<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Prior \u2013 Anticipated \u2013 Actual<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Potential Impact on Gold<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Fed decision<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Wednesday \/ 20:30 GMT+2<\/td><td>[Prior: 3.75-4.00%] \u2013 [Anticipated: 3.75-4.00%] \u2013 [Actual: N\/A]<\/td><td>Could aid gold\u2019s price<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-technical-context\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Technical Context<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"751\" height=\"377\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-15.png\" alt=\"XAUUSD Daily Chart\" class=\"wp-image-9866\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.990066225165563;width:601px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-15.png 751w, https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-15-18x9.png 18w, https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-15-300x151.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 751px) 100vw, 751px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">XAU\/USD appears to be moving in a sideways fashion. We opt for a sideways bias for the bullion. For our sideways to be maintained, we would require gold\u2019s price to remain confined between our 4080 (S1) support level and our 4200 (R1) resistance line. On the other hand, for a bearish outlook, we would require a break below our 4080 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being our 3945 (S2) support line. Lastly, for a bullish outlook, we would require a clear break above our 4200 (R1) resistance line, with the next possible target for the bulls being our 4350 (R2) resistance level. Lastly, for a sideways bias, we would require gold\u2019s price to remain confined between our 4080 (S1) support level and our 4200 (R1) resistance line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-short-term-gold-levels\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Short-Term Gold Levels<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Level<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Price<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Support (1)<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>$ 4080<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Support (2)<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>$3945<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Resistance (1)<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>$4200<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Resistance (2)<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>$4350<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Horizon<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Next week<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-what-changes-the-view\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What Changes the View<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Signal<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Development<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>\ud83d\udfe2<\/strong> <strong>Confirms the Thesis<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Neutral Fed commentary<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>\ud83d\udfe2<\/strong> <strong>Confirms the Thesis<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Fed remaining on hold<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>\ud83d\udd34<\/strong> <strong>Challenges the Thesis<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Significant escalation between the US and Iran on a military level<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>\ud83d\udd34<\/strong> <strong>Challenges the Thesis<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Hawkish Fed commentary in its accompanying statement<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-the-gold-lens\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Gold Lens<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Fed\u2019s decision may shake the markets, considering the state of the US economy and the possible impact of the Fed\u2019s communication for the bank\u2019s stance until the end of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-key-variables-to-remember\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key Variables to Remember<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Indicator<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Bullish for Gold<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Bearish for Gold<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Real yields<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Falling<\/td><td>Rising<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>US Dollar<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Weakening<\/td><td>Strengthening<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Fed expectations<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>More easing<\/td><td>More tightening<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Central-bank demand<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Increasing<\/td><td>Weakening<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>ETF flows<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Inflows<\/td><td>Outflows<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Risk environment<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Uncertainty<\/td><td>Risk appetite<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">DISCLAIMER: This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but is instead a marketing communication.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Research Takeaway Gold is moving in a predominantly sideways fashion, with the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision set to take place next week. The current expectations are for the bank to remain on hold, with FFF implying an 85.1% probability for such a scenario to materialize. Thus, attention may turn to Fed Chair Warsh\u2019s press conference [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":9353,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9865","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.7 (Yoast SEO v28.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Gold traders prepare for Fed decision next week - Trading Sphere<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Gold prices appear to be moving in a sideways fashion as traders prepare for the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision next week.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/ko\/news-analysis\/gold-traders-prepare-for-fed-decision-next-week\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ko_KR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gold traders prepare for Fed decision next week\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Gold prices appear to be moving in a sideways fashion as traders prepare for the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision next week.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/ko\/news-analysis\/gold-traders-prepare-for-fed-decision-next-week\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Trading Sphere\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/tradingsphereofficial\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-10-21T13:06:32+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-10-21T13:06:34+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/What-was-the-highest-price-of-gold-ever-cover.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"850\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"360\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Trading Sphere\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/ar\\\/news-analysis\\\/gold-traders-prepare-for-fed-decision-next-week\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/ar\\\/news-analysis\\\/gold-traders-prepare-for-fed-decision-next-week\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Trading Sphere\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/4da6fdbb3fc691c45bb17a3556eb70c2\"},\"headline\":\"Gold traders prepare for Fed decision next week\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-10-21T13:06:32+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-10-21T13:06:34+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/ar\\\/news-analysis\\\/gold-traders-prepare-for-fed-decision-next-week\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":644,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/ar\\\/news-analysis\\\/gold-traders-prepare-for-fed-decision-next-week\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/09\\\/What-was-the-highest-price-of-gold-ever-cover.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"News &amp; 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