{"id":9076,"date":"2026-09-16T15:47:31","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T12:47:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/?p=9076"},"modified":"2026-09-16T15:47:33","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T12:47:33","slug":"fed-decision-day-gold-research","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/ko\/news-analysis\/fed-decision-day-gold-research\/","title":{"rendered":"FED decision day Gold Research"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 id=\"h-research-takeaway\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Research Takeaway<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gold since our <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/en\/news-analysis\/us-cpi-rates-in-focus-as-fed-decision-nears\/\">last report<\/a> has been moving downwards. Today\u2019s focus is on the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision which is set to occur during the American trading session. Moreover, emphasis on the BoE\u2019s interest rate decision tomorrow and the BOJ\u2019s monetary policy decision on Friday who are expected to hike rates. Overall, a higher rate environment could weigh on gold\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Research Desk View:<\/strong> BEARISH<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-gold-in-one-minute\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Gold in One Minute<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Metric<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>View<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Bias<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Bearish<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Primary Driver<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Fed rate hike expectations<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Main Risk<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Fed decision today<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Key Level<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Hold below $4350 to preserve the thesis<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Next Catalyst<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>FED decision \u00b7 16\/09\/2026 \/ 21:00 GMT+2<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-the-gold-thesis\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Gold Thesis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gold\u2019s near-term path is shaped by the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision which is set to take place later on today. The majority of market participants are currently anticipating the bank to hike rates by 25 basis points with FFF currently implying a 91% probability for such a scenario to materialize. Therefore, our attention and the markets may turn towards Fed Chair Warsh\u2019s press conference and the banks accompanying statement, where traders may be looking for a confirmation or clues that the Fed may continue on their restrictive monetary policy stance in the future in an attempt to curb inflation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In turn this may be seen as hawkish and aid the dollar whilst weighing on gold\u2019s price given their assumed inverse relationship. In our view, we are more concerned with the inflation narrative stemming from the continued high energy prices as a result of the ongoing tensions in the Middle East. Hence our focus will be on any references to the possible long term implications of high energy prices and how the bank may be addressing them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-gold-drivers\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Gold Drivers<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Driver<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Signal<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Rationale<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Rates<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Bearish<\/td><td>US 10YR Yields have risen<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Risk Demand<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Supportive<\/td><td>Elevated geopolitical uncertainty<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>FED<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Bearish<\/td><td>Fed expected to hike today<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-key-events\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key Events<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Event<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Date \/ Time<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Prior \u2013 Anticipated \u2013 Actual<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Potential Impact on Gold<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>FED decision<\/strong><\/td><td>Wednesday \/ 21:00 GMT+2<\/td><td>[Prior: 3.5-3.75%] \u2013 [Anticipated: 3.75-4%] \u2013 [Actual: N\/A]<\/td><td>Could weaken gold\u2019s price<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>FOMC Press conference<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Wednesday \/ 21:30 GMT+2<\/td><td>[Prior: N\/A%] \u2013 [Anticipated: N\/A%] \u2013 [Actual: N\/A]<\/td><td>Depends on the narrative<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-technical-context\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Technical Context<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"601\" height=\"303\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-10.png\" alt=\"XAUUSD Daily Chart 16092026\" class=\"wp-image-9077\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.9834983498349834;width:601px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-10.png 601w, https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-10-300x151.png 300w, https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-10-18x9.png 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 601px) 100vw, 601px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gold appears to be moving in a downwards fashion. Since our last report we\u2019ve re-adjusted our first resistance level to 4350 (R1) we opt for a bearish outlook for the precious metal\u2019s and for our bearish outlook to be maintained we would require a break below our 4180 (S1) support level with the next possible target for the bears being our 4020 (S2) support line. On the other hand, for a bullish outlook we would require a break above our 4350 (R1) resistance line with the next possible target for the bulls being our 4520 (R2) resistance level. We should note that the RSI indicator below our chart currently registers a figure near 50, implying a neutral market sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-short-term-gold-levels\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Short-Term Gold Levels<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Level<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Price<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Support (1)<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>$4180<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Support (2)<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>$4020<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Resistance (1)<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>$4350<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Resistance (2)<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>$4520<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Horizon<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>This week<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-what-changes-the-view\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What Changes the View<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Signal<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Development<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>\ud83d\udfe2<\/strong> <strong>Confirms the Thesis<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Hawkish Fed<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>\ud83d\udfe2<\/strong> <strong>Confirms the Thesis<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Heightened geopolitical tensions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>\ud83d\udd34<\/strong> <strong>Challenges the Thesis<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Dovish Fed commentary<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>\ud83d\udd34<\/strong> <strong>Challenges the Thesis<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Calls for interest rate restraints from other central banks<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-the-gold-lens\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Gold Lens<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Fed\u2019s decision is the next main test for gold prices. The question remains as to whether the Fed will adopt a more restrictive monetary policy approach i.e hiking in the future and to what extent, or will the banks press conference and accompanying statement call for restraint. In our view, as banks resume their rate hiking cycle, gold\u2019s price could potentially suffer as a result. Yet a failure to confirm the markets expectations could inadvertently lead to gains for gold and thus may provide support for the precious metal\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-key-variables-to-remember\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key Variables to Remember<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Indicator<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Bullish for Gold<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Bearish for Gold<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Real yields<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Falling<\/td><td>Rising<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>US Dollar<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Weakening<\/td><td>Strengthening<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Fed expectations<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>More easing<\/td><td>More tightening<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Central-bank demand<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Increasing<\/td><td>Weakening<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>ETF flows<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Inflows<\/td><td>Outflows<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Risk environment<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Uncertainty<\/td><td>Risk appetite<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Disclaimer:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This information is not considered as investment advice or investment recommendation but instead a marketing communication.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Research Takeaway Gold since our last report has been moving downwards. Today\u2019s focus is on the Fed\u2019s interest rate decision which is set to occur during the American trading session. Moreover, emphasis on the BoE\u2019s interest rate decision tomorrow and the BOJ\u2019s monetary policy decision on Friday who are expected to hike rates. Overall, a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":7308,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9076","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.5 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>FED decision day Gold Research - Trading Sphere<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Fed\u2019s interest rate decision is set to take place later on today during the American session, with the Fed widely expected to hike rates by 25 basis points.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/ko\/news-analysis\/fed-decision-day-gold-research\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ko_KR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"FED decision day Gold Research\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Fed\u2019s interest rate decision is set to take place later on today during the American session, with the Fed widely expected to hike rates by 25 basis points.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/ko\/news-analysis\/fed-decision-day-gold-research\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Trading Sphere\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/tradingsphereofficial\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-09-16T12:47:31+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-09-16T12:47:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/gold-market-volatility-price-bar-trading-metals-precious.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"850\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"360\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Trading Sphere\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/en\\\/news-analysis\\\/fed-decision-day-gold-research\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/en\\\/news-analysis\\\/fed-decision-day-gold-research\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Trading Sphere\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/4da6fdbb3fc691c45bb17a3556eb70c2\"},\"headline\":\"FED decision day Gold Research\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-09-16T12:47:31+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-09-16T12:47:33+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/en\\\/news-analysis\\\/fed-decision-day-gold-research\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":678,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/en\\\/news-analysis\\\/fed-decision-day-gold-research\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/gold-market-volatility-price-bar-trading-metals-precious.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"News &amp; 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