{"id":9653,"date":"2026-10-13T12:50:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-13T09:50:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/?p=9653"},"modified":"2026-10-14T16:18:04","modified_gmt":"2026-10-14T13:18:04","slug":"imf-warns-leading-economies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/fr\/news-analysis\/imf-warns-leading-economies\/","title":{"rendered":"IMF warns leading economies"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The main event of the speech by ECB Chief Economist Lane, with emphasis being placed on the recent warnings by the IMF.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

MORNING OVERVIEW<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

France gears up for another round of protests, as the IMF reduces its growth forecasts for the country. In the Mid-East, Saudi\u2019s airports remain closed as tensions with the Houthi Rebels escalate and in Australia, the RBA\u2019s minutes showcase a willingness to raise rates further.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MARKET SNAPSHOT<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
MARKET<\/strong><\/td>CURRENT<\/strong><\/td>CHANGE<\/strong><\/td>COMMENT<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
S&P 500<\/strong><\/td>7818<\/td>+0.08%<\/td>N\/A<\/td><\/tr>
DXY<\/strong><\/td>102.40<\/td>+0.18%<\/td>N\/A<\/td><\/tr>
EUR\/USD<\/strong><\/td>1.1180<\/td>-0.17%<\/td>Lagarde\u2019s comments<\/td><\/tr>
Gold<\/strong><\/td>4171<\/td>-0.52%<\/td>N\/A<\/td><\/tr>
Brent Crude<\/strong><\/td>105.85<\/td>1.05%<\/td>Houthi attacks<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

KEY MARKET THEMES<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

01 \u2014 France\u2019s political woes continue<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

According to Bloomberg, \u201cFrench high school students are set to protest on Tuesday, extending their movement into a third week with no clear response from policymakers to their demands\u201d, which comes as the IMF published a report in which France is one of two G7 countries that have seen their GDP growth forecast reduced for 2026 and 2027. In turn the continued issues faced by France could possibly spill over into the EUR.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market implication (EUR):<\/strong> Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n

02 \u2014 IMF urges leading economies to rebuild their public finances<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The world\u2019s leading economies need to take \u201curgent\u201d measures in order to rebuild their public finances, according to the IMF. In particular, the IMF has published forecasts showing that they may be heading for their biggest budget deficits since covid. Specifically, the IMF predicted that deficits in China and the US will exceed 8% of GDP in 2026. However, the IMF has raised or held growth forecasts for most G7 economies with the exception of France, which could alleviate market worries for now. Overall, the warnings by the IMF may be of concern as debt continues to grow, in the event of an economic downturn, it may be a prevailing issue that may aid gold\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market implication (XAU):<\/strong> Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n

03 \u2014 RBA minutes showcases rate hike willingness<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The RBA released their last meeting minutes earlier on today. In the bank\u2019s statement it was noted that \u201cMembers agreed that financial conditions were restrictive but that some indicators could imply that the extent of restriction was only modest\u201d and that \u201cThe strongest argument for raising the cash rate target at this meeting was that several of the upside risks identified in August had since materialised or were building\u201d. Our takeaway from the minutes is that the upside risks were building, implying that their continuation could force the bank to continue on their restrictive monetary policy path moving forward. In turn, this could provide support for the AUD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Market implication (AUD) :<\/strong> Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n

WHAT MATTERS TOMORROW<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

ECB Chief Economist Lane speaks<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Time GMT+2):<\/strong> 20:30<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expected:<\/strong> N\/A
Previous:<\/strong> N\/A<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Potential market reaction:<\/strong>
N\/A<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ASSET FOCUS<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

[Gold \/ Commodities]<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\"[Gold<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

XAU\/USD<\/a> appears to be moving in a sideways fashion. We opt for a sideways bias for the bullion. For our sideways to be maintained, we would require gold\u2019s price to remain confined between our 4080 (S1) support level and our 4200 (R1) resistance line. On the other hand, for a bearish outlook we would require a break below our 4080 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being our 3945 (S2) support line. Lastly, for a bullish outlook, we would require a clear break above our 4200 (R1) resistance line, with the next possible target for the bulls being our 4350 (R2) resistance level. Lastly, for a sideways bias, we would require gold\u2019s price to remain confined between our 4080 (S1) support level and our 4200 (R1) resistance line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

KEY LEVELS<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
    \n
  • Resistance (R1):<\/strong> 4200<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Resistance (R2):<\/strong> 4350<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Support (S1):<\/strong> 4080<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Support (S2):<\/strong> 3945<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Technical View:<\/strong> Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    CROSS-ASSET VIEW<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
    ASSET CLASS<\/strong><\/td>BIAS<\/strong><\/td>KEY DRIVER<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
    US Equities<\/strong><\/td>Neutral<\/td>N\/A<\/td><\/tr>
    USD<\/strong><\/td>Neutral<\/td>N\/A<\/td><\/tr>
    Gold<\/strong><\/td>Neutral<\/td>N\/A<\/td><\/tr>
    Oil<\/strong><\/td>Bullish<\/td>Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    TRADING SPHERE VIEW<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Bearish for the EUR<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Our base case:<\/strong>
    Continued political uncertainty in France as the protests continue, whilst the IMF raises growth forecast concerns could weigh on the EUR.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    What would change our view:<\/strong>
    Measures being taken by the French Government to reduce debt or increase economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    RISKS TO THE VIEW<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Snap elections being called<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

    Snap elections being called in France and Germany.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    TODAY’S WATCHLIST<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    01<\/strong> ECB Chief Economist Lane\u2019s speech<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    DISCLAIMER: This content is for general informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or investment recommendation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    The main event of the speech by ECB Chief Economist Lane, with emphasis being placed on the recent warnings by the IMF. MORNING OVERVIEW France gears up for another round of protests, as the IMF reduces its growth forecasts for the country. In the Mid-East, Saudi\u2019s airports remain closed as tensions with the Houthi Rebels […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":9147,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9653","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nIMF warns leading economies - Trading Sphere<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/fr\/news-analysis\/imf-warns-leading-economies\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"IMF warns leading economies\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The main event of the speech by ECB Chief Economist Lane, with emphasis being placed on the recent warnings by the IMF. 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