{"id":9070,"date":"2026-09-16T12:24:33","date_gmt":"2026-09-16T09:24:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/?p=9070"},"modified":"2026-09-16T12:24:36","modified_gmt":"2026-09-16T09:24:36","slug":"fed-decision-day","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/es\/news-analysis\/fed-decision-day\/","title":{"rendered":"FED decision day"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 id=\"h-morning-overview\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>MORNING OVERVIEW<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Fed\u2019s interest rate decision is set to take place during today\u2019s American session and will most likely be the dominant market narrative for the day. Across the pond, the UK\u2019s CPI rates released earlier today confirmed the markets expectations of an acceleration of inflationary pressures. We should note the BoC\u2019s minutes are also due out today which could lead to interest in the Loonie as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-market-snapshot\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>MARKET SNAPSHOT<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>MARKET<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>CURRENT<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>CHANGE<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>COMMENT<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>S&amp;P 500<\/strong><\/td><td>7600<\/td><td>+0.20%<\/td><td>Fed decision today<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>DXY<\/strong><\/td><td>99.57<\/td><td>-0.04%<\/td><td>Fed decision today<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>EUR\/USD<\/strong><\/td><td>1.1550<\/td><td>+0.06%<\/td><td>Fed decision today<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Gold<\/strong><\/td><td>4333<\/td><td>+0.94%<\/td><td>Fed decision today<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Brent Crude<\/strong><\/td><td>104.12<\/td><td>-1.64%<\/td><td>API came in vastly greater than expected<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-key-market-themes\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>KEY MARKET THEMES<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-01-fed-decision-today\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>01 \u2014 FED decision today<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Fed\u2019s interest rate decision is set to take place later on today, during the American trading session. The majority of market participants are currently anticipating the bank to hike rates by 25 basis points, with FFF currently implying a&nbsp; 91.1% probability for such a scenario to materialize. In turn attention turns to Fed Governor Warsh\u2019s press conference speech following the decision and the bank\u2019s accompanying statement for any clues as to what the bank\u2019s next steps may be. In our view, we wouldn\u2019t be surprised to see a more hawkish sentiment emerging from the Fed, such as implying further rate hikes down the line and possibly of a greater magnitude should it be required to do so. In turn any hawkish comments may aid the dollar and vice versa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Market implication (USD):<\/strong> Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-02-us-oil-inventory-buildup\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>02 \u2014 US oil inventory buildup<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The API weekly crude oil inventories figure was released yesterday evening and vastly exceeded expectations. Specifically, the markets were anticipating a drawdown of -1.8 million barrels, whilst the true figure came in at an increase of 7.14 million barrels, vastly dwarfing expectations. In turn, the significantly larger than expected buildup of oil inventories may have weighed on oil prices. Yet, such an impact on oil prices may be temporary in the long run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Market implication (OIL):<\/strong> Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-03-bank-of-canada-s-decision-minutes-to-be-released-today\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>03 \u2014 Bank of Canada\u2019s decision minutes to be released today<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Bank of Canada\u2019s monetary policy minutes surrounding their decision are set to be released today. The minutes may be monitored by Loonie traders as they may be looking for clues into the bank\u2019s willingness to raise interest rates again this year, which in turn may provide support for the Loonie. However, any hesitation could have the opposite effect. In our view, considering the rise in energy prices which was evident during the BoC\u2019s monetary policy decision, the tone in the minutes could be perceived as hawkish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Market implication (CAD) :<\/strong> BULLISH<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-what-matters-today\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>WHAT MATTERS TODAY<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-fed-monetary-policy-decision\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>FED monetary policy decision<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Time (GMT+2):<\/strong> 21:00<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected:<\/strong> 3.75-4<br><strong>Previous:<\/strong> 3.5-3.75<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Potential market reaction:<\/strong><br>Could provide support for the USD<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-boc-to-release-monetary-policy-deliberation-minutes\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>BoC to release monetary policy deliberation minutes<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Time (GMT+2):<\/strong> 20:30<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected:<\/strong> N\/A<br><strong>Previous:<\/strong> N\/A<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Potential market reaction:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Any hawkish commentary from the BoC i.e implying rate hikes could aid the BoC<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-what-matters-tomorrow-morning\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>WHAT MATTERS TOMORROW MORNING<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>New Zealand\u2019s GDP rates<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Time (GMT+2):<\/strong> 01:45<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected:<\/strong> 0.1%<br><strong>Previous:<\/strong> 0.8%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Potential market reaction:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Could weaken the NZD<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-asset-focus\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>ASSET FOCUS<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-gold-commodities\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>[GOLD \/ COMMODITIES]<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"601\" height=\"327\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-9.png\" alt=\"[GOLD \/ COMMODITIES] Daily Chart 09162026\" class=\"wp-image-9071\" style=\"aspect-ratio:1.837920489296636;width:601px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-9.png 601w, https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-9-300x163.png 300w, https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-9-18x10.png 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 601px) 100vw, 601px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/metals-energy\/what-is-gold-market-volatility-and-what-causes-it\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"7302\">Gold<\/a> appears to be moving in a sideways fashion. The commodity has tested and validated our 4320 (S1) line yesterday, yet during todays session it appears to be breaking above it, resulting in a re-evaluation of our support line. We\u2019d opt for a sideways bias at the time of this report as long as gold\u2019s price remains above our $4320 (S1) support level and below our 4520 (R1) resistance line. The RSI indicator below our chart currently registers a figure close to 50 implying a neutral market sentiment. Yet considering the Fed\u2019s decision today, gold\u2019s price may experience heavy volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-key-levels\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>KEY LEVELS<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Resistance (R1):<\/strong> 4520<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Resistance (R2):<\/strong> 4695<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Support (S1):<\/strong> 4320<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Support (S2):<\/strong> 4180<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Technical View:<\/strong> NEUTRAL<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-cross-asset-view\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>CROSS-ASSET VIEW<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>ASSET CLASS<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>BIAS<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>KEY DRIVER<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Equities<\/strong><\/td><td>Bearish<\/td><td>FED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>USD<\/strong><\/td><td>Bullish<\/td><td>FED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Gold<\/strong><\/td><td>NEUTRAL<\/td><td>US 10YR Yields<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Oil<\/strong><\/td><td>Bullish<\/td><td>Mid-East<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-risks-to-the-view\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>RISKS TO THE VIEW<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-fed-decision\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>FED decision<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Any deviation from what we\u2019re currently expecting from the Fed could result to volatile price moves across the board.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-trading-sphere-view\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>TRADING SPHERE VIEW<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-bearish-for-gold\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Bearish for Gold<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Our base case:<\/strong><br>Considering the heightened inflation risks and the persistently high energy prices, we wouldn\u2019t be surprised to see the Fed adopting an even greater hawkish stance which could aid the dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What would change our view:<\/strong><br>A dovish market sentiment emerging from the Fed<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-today-s-watchlist\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>TODAY&#8217;S WATCHLIST<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>01<\/strong> FED decision<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>02<\/strong> BoC minutes release<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>MORNING OVERVIEW The Fed\u2019s interest rate decision is set to take place during today\u2019s American session and will most likely be the dominant market narrative for the day. Across the pond, the UK\u2019s CPI rates released earlier today confirmed the markets expectations of an acceleration of inflationary pressures. We should note the BoC\u2019s minutes are [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":1616,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9070","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.5 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>FED decision day - Trading Sphere<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Fed\u2019s interest rate decision is set to take place later on today, with the bank expected to hike rates by 25 basis points.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/es\/news-analysis\/fed-decision-day\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"FED decision day\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Fed\u2019s interest rate decision is set to take place later on today, with the bank expected to hike rates by 25 basis points.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/es\/news-analysis\/fed-decision-day\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Trading Sphere\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/tradingsphereofficial\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-09-16T09:24:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-09-16T09:24:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/pic_3x-2-scaled.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1266\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Trading Sphere\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/es\\\/news-analysis\\\/fed-decision-day\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/es\\\/news-analysis\\\/fed-decision-day\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Trading Sphere\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/4da6fdbb3fc691c45bb17a3556eb70c2\"},\"headline\":\"FED decision day\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-09-16T09:24:33+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-09-16T09:24:36+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/es\\\/news-analysis\\\/fed-decision-day\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":740,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/es\\\/news-analysis\\\/fed-decision-day\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/01\\\/pic_3x-2-scaled.webp\",\"articleSection\":[\"News &amp; 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