{"id":8469,"date":"2026-09-02T16:43:14","date_gmt":"2026-09-02T13:43:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/?p=8469"},"modified":"2026-09-02T16:44:14","modified_gmt":"2026-09-02T13:44:14","slug":"golds-price-continues-to-dive-as-fed-rate-hike-expectations-rise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/es\/news-analysis\/golds-price-continues-to-dive-as-fed-rate-hike-expectations-rise\/","title":{"rendered":"Gold\u2019s price continues to dive as Fed rate hike expectations rise"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gold\u2019s price drops below $4340 per troy ounce as market participants continue to expect the Fed to adopt a more hawkish tone as their September meeting nears.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-research-takeaway\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Research Takeaway<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gold is currently facing downwards pressures as a result of the market anticipating a 25bp rate hike by the Fed in their next meeting which is two weeks away. On the other hand, the geopolitical element is still there as tensions between the US and Iran flair up again. Although, as the markets grow used to such tensions, their impact may not be as significant gold\u2019s price nowadays. Our main focus will be the release of the US Employment data on Friday as it has the potential to upend our views. Yet for now we opt for a bearish outlook for gold\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Research Desk View:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/everything-forex\/how-to-read-bullish-and-bearish-market-sentiment\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"6571\">BEARISH<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-gold-in-one-minute\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Gold in One Minute<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Metric<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>View<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Bias<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Bearish<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Primary Driver<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Fed interest rate expectations<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Main Risk<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>US Employment data on Friday<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Key Level<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Hold below $4340 to preserve the thesis<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Next Catalyst<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>US Employment data \u00b7 04\/09\/2026 \/ 15:30 GMT+2<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-the-gold-thesis\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Gold Thesis<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Gold\u2019s near-term path is shaped by ongoing hawkish rhetoric which has emerged from Fed policymakers. Starting with Fed Chair Warsh on Friday, who stated that \u201cwhile this summer\u2019s [inflation] readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved\u201d and that \u201cWe must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do\u201d. Moreover, Fed Governor Barr stated yesterday that he would \u201cif inflation appears not to be moderating sufficiently, then I think we should act decisively to raise rates.\u201d In turn, the hawkish comments emerging from the Fed have resulted in the majority of market participants anticipating a 25bp rate hike in the Fed\u2019s next meeting on the 15<sup>th<\/sup> of September, with FFF currently implying a 69.6% probability for such a scenario to materialize. In turn, a more restrictive monetary policy stance by the Fed could weigh on gold\u2019s price. However, the US Employment data is due out this Friday and may thus upend our Gold thesis depending on&nbsp; the narrative which emerges, as it could influence the Fed heading into their meeting in two weeks&#8217; time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-gold-drivers\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Gold Drivers<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Driver<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Signal<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Rationale<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Rates<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Bearish<\/td><td>Interest rate expectations for the Fed have risen<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Risk Demand<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Supportive<\/td><td>Elevated geopolitical uncertainty<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-key-events\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key Events<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Event<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Date \/ Time<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Prior \u2013 Anticipated \u2013 Actual<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Potential Impact on Gold<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>US Non-Farm Payrolls<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Friday \/ 15:30 GMT+2<\/td><td>[Prior: -23k] \u2013 [Anticipated: 55k] \u2013 [Actual: N\/A]<\/td><td>Could weaken gold\u2019s price<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>US Unemployment rate<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Friday \/ 15:30 GMT+2<\/td><td>[Prior: 4.1%] \u2013 [Anticipated: 4.1%] \u2013 [Actual: N\/A]<\/td><td>Could support gold\u2019s price<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>US Average hourly earnings<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Friday \/ 15:30 GMT+2<\/td><td>[Prior: 3.2%] \u2013 [Anticipated: 3.0%] \u2013 [Actual: N\/A]<\/td><td>Could support gold\u2019s price<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"533\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/XAUUSD-09022026-TS-1024x533.png\" alt=\"XAUUSD 09022026\" class=\"wp-image-8470\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/XAUUSD-09022026-TS-1024x533.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/XAUUSD-09022026-TS-300x156.png 300w, https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/XAUUSD-09022026-TS-767x399.png 767w, https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/XAUUSD-09022026-TS-18x9.png 18w, https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/XAUUSD-09022026-TS-1536x799.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/XAUUSD-09022026-TS.png 1835w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-technical-context\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Technical Context<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/markets\/metals\/\">Gold<\/a> is trading in a downtrend on the daily chart, with price action having cleared our support turned to resistance at the 4340 (R1) level. Momentum indicators such as RSI are bearish, which may imply that the bears maintain control of gold\u2019s price. The market appears to have established structural levels at $4180 (S1) and $4340 (R1).For our bearish outlook to continue, we would require a break below our 4180 (S1) support level, with the next possible target for the bears being our 4020 (S2) support base. On the other hand, for a bullish outlook, we would require a clear break above our 4340 (R1) level, with the next possible target for the bulls being our 4250 (R2) resistance level. Lastly, for a sideways bias we would require gold\u2019s price to remain between our aforementioned S1 and R1 support and resistance levels, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-short-term-gold-levels\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Short-Term Gold Levels<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Level<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Price<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Support (1)<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>$ 4180<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Support (2)<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>$4020<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Resistance (1)<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>$4340<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Resistance (2)<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>$4520<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Horizon<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>This week<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-what-changes-the-view\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What Changes the View<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Signal<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Development<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>\ud83d\udfe2<\/strong> <strong>Confirms the Thesis<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>A strong US Employment report, showcasing a resilient labour market<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>\ud83d\udfe2<\/strong> <strong>Confirms the Thesis<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Continued hawkish commentary from Fed policymakers<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>\ud83d\udd34<\/strong> <strong>Challenges the Thesis<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Significant escalation between the US and Iran on a military level<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>\ud83d\udd34<\/strong> <strong>Challenges the Thesis<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Weaker than expected US Employment report<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-the-gold-lens\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Gold Lens<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite the elevated tensions in the Middle East over the past two days, the markets appear unfazed by the commentary. Although it may provide some support for gold\u2019s price, it may not change the overall picture as we have grown accustomed to the tensions between the US and Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-key-variables-to-remember\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Key Variables to Remember<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Indicator<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Bullish for Gold<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Bearish for Gold<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Real yields<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Falling<\/td><td>Rising<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>US Dollar<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Weakening<\/td><td>Strengthening<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Fed expectations<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>More easing<\/td><td>More tightening<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Central-bank demand<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Increasing<\/td><td>Weakening<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>ETF flows<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Inflows<\/td><td>Outflows<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Risk environment<\/strong><strong><\/strong><\/td><td>Uncertainty<\/td><td>Risk appetite<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Disclaimer:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This information is not considered as investment advice or investment recommendation but instead a marketing communication.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold\u2019s price drops below $4340 per troy ounce as market participants continue to expect the Fed to adopt a more hawkish tone as their September meeting nears. Research Takeaway Gold is currently facing downwards pressures as a result of the market anticipating a 25bp rate hike by the Fed in their next meeting which is [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":7308,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8469","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-metals-energy","category-news-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.4 (Yoast SEO v28.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Gold\u2019s price continues to dive as Fed rate hike expectations rise - Trading Sphere<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Gold\u2019s price drops below $4340 per troy ounce as market participants continue to expect the Fed to adopt a more hawkish tone as their September meeting nears.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/es\/news-analysis\/golds-price-continues-to-dive-as-fed-rate-hike-expectations-rise\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Gold\u2019s price continues to dive as Fed rate hike expectations rise\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Gold\u2019s price drops below $4340 per troy ounce as market participants continue to expect the Fed to adopt a more hawkish tone as their September meeting nears.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/es\/news-analysis\/golds-price-continues-to-dive-as-fed-rate-hike-expectations-rise\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Trading Sphere\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/tradingsphereofficial\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-09-02T13:43:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-09-02T13:44:14+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/gold-market-volatility-price-bar-trading-metals-precious.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"850\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"360\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Trading Sphere\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/en\\\/news-analysis\\\/golds-price-continues-to-dive-as-fed-rate-hike-expectations-rise\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/en\\\/news-analysis\\\/golds-price-continues-to-dive-as-fed-rate-hike-expectations-rise\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Trading Sphere\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/4da6fdbb3fc691c45bb17a3556eb70c2\"},\"headline\":\"Gold\u2019s price continues to dive as Fed rate hike expectations rise\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-09-02T13:43:14+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-09-02T13:44:14+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/en\\\/news-analysis\\\/golds-price-continues-to-dive-as-fed-rate-hike-expectations-rise\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":781,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/en\\\/news-analysis\\\/golds-price-continues-to-dive-as-fed-rate-hike-expectations-rise\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.tradingsphere.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/gold-market-volatility-price-bar-trading-metals-precious.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Metals &amp; 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