{"id":10215,"date":"2026-10-23T16:22:11","date_gmt":"2026-10-23T13:22:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/?p=10215"},"modified":"2026-10-23T16:22:14","modified_gmt":"2026-10-23T13:22:14","slug":"jpy-gains-in-the-fx-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/es\/news-analysis\/jpy-gains-in-the-fx-market\/","title":{"rendered":"JPY gains in the FX market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Maybe the characteristic move in the FX market yesterday was the strengthening of the JPY. Expectations for a hawkish BoJ in combination with a flight to safety by market participants tended to provide support for the Japanese currency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-morning-overview\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>MORNING OVERVIEW<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">US tech shares tumbled yesterday as worries associated with the costs related to AI development emerged once again. On the other hand oil prices edged higher as worries for the supply side of the international oil market and the tensions in the Gulf region intensified. Gold\u2019s price continued to present bearish tendencies&nbsp; yesterday, with worries for inflation in the US economy and a possible tightening of the Fed\u2019s monetary policy weighing on a fundamental level. In the FX market, JPY took the market\u2019s by &nbsp;surprise yesterday as it gained across the board, with analysts citing a flight to safety by investors, given the AI jitters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-market-snapshot\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>MARKET SNAPSHOT<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>MARKET<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>CURRENT<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>CHANGE<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>COMMENT<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>US 100<\/strong><\/td><td>28924<\/td><td>-0.12%<\/td><td>Market jitters for AI related trades tend to weigh on the US Tech sector<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>DE40<\/strong><\/td><td>25189<\/td><td>-0.72%<\/td><td>Worries for growth in the Euro Zone are still present<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>USD\/JPY<\/strong><\/td><td>156.89<\/td><td>0.123%<\/td><td>USD\/JPY stabilised after a heavy drop given a flight to the relative safety of the JPY<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Gold<\/strong><\/td><td>4024<\/td><td>-0.57%<\/td><td>Worries for inflation in the US economy and the Fed\u2019s intentions tend to weigh on gold\u2019s price<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Crude<\/strong><\/td><td>95.17<\/td><td>0.10<\/td><td>Tensions in the Middle East tend to boost oil prices<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-key-market-themes\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>KEY MARKET THEMES<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-01-us-tech-equities-nbsp-on-the-retreat\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>01 \u2014 US tech equities&nbsp; on the retreat<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">US equity markets suffered a significant decline yesterday, driven largely by concerns about the sustainability of AI investment and its impact on the technology sector. Meta Platforms dropped approximately 7%, while Advanced Micro Devices fell by over 8%. Micron Technology and Nvidia also declined by 6% and 4%, respectively. Persistently high interest rates are likely to pressure highly leveraged sectors, while investors increasingly question the substantial capital expenditure required for AI development. If inflationary pressures remain elevated and doubts about the viability of AI-related investments intensify, US equities could face further declines amid weakening investor confidence and heightened market uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Market implication (Nasdaq):<\/strong> Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-02-bullish-tendencies-for-oil-prices-nbsp-correct-lower\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>02 \u2014 Bullish tendencies for Oil prices&nbsp; correct lower<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Oil prices have continued to climb as fears of supply disruptions in the global oil market grow. Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have raised concerns about the Kingdom\u2019s capacity to ensure consistent and reliable oil supplies. Moreover, the inability of Saudi Arabia and the United States to control the Houthi rebels has undermined confidence in Saudi Arabia as a reliable oil producer and appealing investment destination. If regional instability continues and attacks on vital oil infrastructure persist, global oil prices are likely to rise further in the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Market implication (WTI):<\/strong> Bullish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-03-jpy-s-safe-haven-status-provides-support\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>03 \u2014 JPY\u2019s safe haven status provides support<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One of the key developments in yesterday\u2019s foreign exchange market was the Japanese yen\u2019s appreciation against the US dollar, British pound, and euro, reflecting its broader strength. This movement may be driven by a flight to safety as investors reconsider the sustainability of AI-related investments, although carry-trade activity remains ongoing. Furthermore, Japan\u2019s September inflation accelerated, exceeding the Bank of Japan\u2019s 2% annual target and potentially strengthening expectations of tighter monetary policy. With the BoJ\u2019s interest rate decision scheduled for next Friday, any further increase in hawkish market expectations could provide additional support for the yen, potentially extending its recent gains against major currencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Market implication (USD\/JPY) :<\/strong> Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-what-matters-today\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>WHAT MATTERS TODAY<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-us-preliminary-pmi-figures-for-october\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>US Preliminary PMI figures for October<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>(Composite PMI)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Time GMT+2):<\/strong> 16.45<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected:<\/strong> &#8211;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Previous:<\/strong> 58.4<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Potential market reaction:<\/strong><br>A substantial drop below 58.4 could weaken USD<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-what-matters-on-monday\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>WHAT MATTERS ON MONDAY<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-germany-s-ifo-indicators-for-october\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Germany\u2019s Ifo indicators for October<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>(Business climate)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Time (GMT+2):<\/strong> 11:00<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Expected:<\/strong> &#8211;<br><strong>Previous:<\/strong> 89.9<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Potential market reaction:<\/strong><br>A substantial drop below 89.9 could weaken EUR<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-asset-focus\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>ASSET FOCUS<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-nasdaq-us-indexes\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>[Nasdaq\/ US indexes]<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"752\" height=\"349\" src=\"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-17.png\" alt=\"[Nasdaq\/ US indexes]\" class=\"wp-image-10216\" style=\"aspect-ratio:2.1577060931899643;width:602px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-17.png 752w, https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-17-300x139.png 300w, https:\/\/www.tradingsphere.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/image-17-18x8.png 18w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 752px) 100vw, 752px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nasdaq tumbled yesterday and during today\u2019s Asian session, broke the 29065 (R1) support line, now turned to resistance. It all lines up for a bearish outlook for the index, as the downward motion was intense and the RSI indicator has reached as low as 30, flirting with oversold conditions that could cause a correction higher. Despite a stabilisation of the index in today\u2019s Asian session, we tend to maintain a bearish outlook for the index. Should the bears remain in charge, we may see Nasdaq breaching the 28860 (S1) support line and aim for the 28532 (S2) support level. For a bullish outlook to emerge, we would require Nasdaq to reverse yesterday\u2019s losses and break clearly the 29262 (R2) resistance line aiming for the 29568 (R3) resistance line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-key-levels\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>KEY LEVELS<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Resistance (R1):<\/strong> 29065<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Resistance (R2):<\/strong> 29262<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Support (S1):<\/strong> 28860<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Support (S2):<\/strong> 28532<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Technical View:<\/strong> Bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-cross-asset-view\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>CROSS-ASSET VIEW<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>ASSET CLASS<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>BIAS<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>KEY DRIVER<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>US Equities<\/strong><\/td><td>Bearish<\/td><td>AI data infrastructure cost worries<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>USD<\/strong><\/td><td>Bearish<\/td><td>Market\u2019s expectations for the Fed<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Gold<\/strong><\/td><td>Bearish<\/td><td>High inflation tends weigh<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Oil<\/strong><\/td><td>Bullish<\/td><td>Regional geopolitical tensions in the Middle East<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-trading-sphere-view\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>TRADING SPHERE VIEW<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-bearish-for-the-us-tech-sector\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Bearish for the US Tech sector<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Our base case:<\/strong><br>Continued expectations for the Fed to tighten its monetary policy by raising its interest rate could enhance market worries for the debt laden US tech sector, as increased debt servicing costs could negatively affect their performance, especially the AI sector and its high CapEx.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>What would change our view:<\/strong><br>A possible easing of the market\u2019s expectations for the Fed to tighten its monetary policy in the near term, or an easing of the market\u2019s worries for high inflationary pressures in the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-risks-to-the-view\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>RISKS TO THE VIEW<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 id=\"h-high-oil-prices\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>High oil prices<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">High or potentially even higher oil prices could enhance market\u2019s worries turning the market sentiment more cautious weighing on US stock markets and gold\u2019s price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-today-s-watchlist\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>TODAY&#8217;S WATCHLIST<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>01<\/strong> US Preliminary PMI figures for October<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>02<\/strong> Germany\u2019s Ifo indicators (Monday\u2019s European session)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>DISCLAIMER: This information is not considered as investment advice or an investment recommendation, but is instead a marketing communication.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Maybe the characteristic move in the FX market yesterday was the strengthening of the JPY. Expectations for a hawkish BoJ in combination with a flight to safety by market participants tended to provide support for the Japanese currency. MORNING OVERVIEW US tech shares tumbled yesterday as worries associated with the costs related to AI development [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":10201,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10215","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.7 (Yoast SEO v28.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>JPY gains in the FX market - Trading Sphere<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"JPY strengthens on safe-haven demand and BoJ hawkish bets as US tech slides. 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